Correct spelling, explanation: maybe is made out of a phrase may (might) be, as it was used as a distinct phrase. Over time the may be conjoined to create a separate word maybe and used separately, so the process behind the word is rather simple.
Definition of maybe:
1. Signalizing a probability; perhaps, possibly
I didn’t know where my cat went; maybe it was playing in the attic.
Maybe I’ll attend the party if I have some free time on Friday.
Incorrect spelling, explanation:
mabye is not correct, even if you just consider the pronunciation – be and bye are read in very different ways. The way the word is built, it would also suggest it’s made out of Ma and bye, but it doesn’t really make much sense. Maybe has a clear meaning based on an English expression may be, which is why only that one is correct.
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